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Assessment of fracture risk: Population association vs individual prediction.

J Bone Miner Res. 2017 Dec 27. Nguyen TV, Eisman JA. 

A recent analysis of the Study of Osteoporotic Fracture found that a single bone mineral density (BMD) could predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. This study, together with previous studies, renews an important question whether repeating BMD measurement is necessary for the assessment of fracture risk in asymptomatic individuals. In this commentary we argue that it is important to distinguish between association and prediction. From an association perspective, a single BMD measurement is statistically associated with fracture risk over two decades for a group of individuals, but from a prediction perspective, repeating BMD measurements is necessary for a more accurate prediction of fracture for an individual. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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